Yesterday, my girlfriend and I were together and being physical. No intercourse took place; however, we did masturbate close to one another, and I ejaculated over her thighs. Some of my ejaculate may have gotten onto her vagina (the outside), but we aren't entirely certain if it did or not.
My question is this—realistically, how high are the chances of her getting pregnant? Let's assume the worst case scenario: that her fertile period is ongoing and that she's due to ovulate in a day or two. Realistically, what are the chances that some of my sperm managed to get inside her and will work its way up to meet the egg?
To put it another way—how high are the chances of pregnancy if one hasn't ejaculated directly inside the woman?
Regards,
Cray