Strong LH surge, light to moderate bleeding. Pregnancy, HCG tests done. Possibility of miscarriage, low progesterone?

according to LMP i should be 5 weeks period , however i had a positive strong LH surge about 4-5 days prior to my period light one time spotting day period was due, then nothing till april 23rd had spotting after intercourse, got a positive pregnancy test the following day had a beta HCG of 10, went back on thursday 48 hours later had beta of 22, also had cervix check tuesday afternoon, cervix was closed, noticed some blood(wasnt concerned) since wed -thurs-fri had light to moderate bleeding , not enough to fill a pad, no cramping/pain, went into ER friday 24 hours since last beta HCG and it is now 33, well ER dr said thinks miscarriage? is it possible that 1. i truly didn t ovulate till 4 days prior till period was due 2, that the bleeding is from being irritated and 3. could i have low progestrone and should i request it be checked?